Sawyers Bar, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

126
FXUS66 KMFR 132231
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
231 PM PST Mon Jan 13 2025

.DISCUSSION...Ridging over the northeastern Pacific and broad
troughing over central North America will keep our forecast area
under general high pressure with north flow aloft. An upper level
trough to our south will close off and take up position offshore
of southern California and as a result, the Pacific ridge will
tilt inland over the Pacific Northwest. This ridge then remains in
control for the remainder of the week, either directly overhead or
centered just offshore.

All of this means that the weather will be dry, quiet, and fairly
consistent from day to day this week. Expect fog/freezing fog and
low clouds each overnight and morning for most valleys west of
the Cascades. Confidence is much lower, but valley fog is possible
east of the Cascades as well, although coverage may not be as
widespread or as consistent as to the west. Otherwise,
temperatures will generally see a gradual warming trend through
the week, although any areas in more persistent fog or low clouds
may stay cooler with very little change in temperature.

Air stagnation will be a concern through this time as well, with
strong valley inversions and very little mixing. An Air Stagnation
Advisory has been issued for area valleys through Thursday
morning. A weak front will pass just north and east of the area
Thursday, and this may help break the inversions at least
briefly, but continued high pressure after that is expected to
once again lock the area down under strong inversions. -BPN


&&

.AVIATION...14/00Z TAFS...Most low clouds/fog have dissipated
late this afternoon with just some high cirrus drifting by at
times. Conditions will remain this way with VFR prevailing into this
evening. However, expect LIFR low clouds/fog to redevelop in the
west side valleys, including in Roseburg and Medford 07-09Z, and
then persist through most of Tuesday morning. The lower conditions
should break to VFR by 20-22Z Tuesday. The remainder of the area
will remain VFR through Tuesday. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Monday, January 13, 2025...Winds and
seas should gradually lower through late this evening, but
there could be just enough of a wind/wave combination to keep seas
near 10 feet over the outer waters south of Cape Arago. Winds and
swell will then increase on Tuesday in those areas, so rather than
finesse the details, we just ran the Small Craft Advisory out
through Wednesday morning. Most areas north of Cape Arago and inside
10 nm should have a period with winds/seas below advisory levels. We
do expect a period of time Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
morning where winds/seas are below advisory levels for all areas.
Then, the thermal trough will likely reestablish and strengthen by
Thursday afternoon. Conditions become hazardous to small craft again
especially south of Cape Arago. Gusty north winds, strongest
south of Cape Blanco, could bring very steep seas to those areas
Thursday night into Friday. -Spilde

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 1000 AM PST Monday, January 13,
2025...We extended the beach hazards statement. Seas are still in
the 9-12 ft range at 16 seconds this morning and this could last
through this evening. Even though seas are expected to come down
briefly this afternoon and tonight, another long period west-
northwest swell (6-8 ft/19 seconds) will move in on Tuesday
maintaining a moderate risk of sneaker waves along southern Oregon
beaches. The risk is higher for west facing beaches and on incoming
tides. High tides during the event are this evening, Tuesday morning
and after 7 pm Tuesday evening.

Sneaker waves are a type of wave that can run higher up the beach
than a normal wave. Sneaker waves can possibly wash over pathways or
rock outcroppings. They can lift and carry logs, which can then
strike or pin beachgoers. Sneaker waves can knock a person off their
feet and carry them out to deeper waters, where hypothermia becomes
possible. Sneaker waves can pose a lethal threat. As these
conditions are expected while the sun is down, visibility will be
limited. Always keep your eyes on the sea and use extra caution.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for ORZ021-022.

     Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ021-
     023>026-029>031.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this
     afternoon for PZZ356.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ350-370-
     376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday
     for PZZ370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 1 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ376.

&&

$$